Seeing the Future: How to Build Basic Forecasting Models - Paperback

by Tam Bang Vu (Author)

This book guides you through an enjoyable journey, step by step, into the future. A team of fictional characters is introduced to share their learning and working experiences with the readers. In the beginning of the book, you will take the first step by learning the most basic models for one-period forecasts based on past performance of a market. You will also learn how to evaluate your newly built models. Next, you will progress further into intermediate-level models, including multi-period forecasts based on past performance of a market or based on an external factor. It also introduces interval forecasting, which allows you to obtain a range of forecast values instead of a single value in the future. In the second half, you will familiarize yourself with advanced models that provide multi-period forecasts based on multiple internal or external factors. Toward the end, you will learn several applied models in business and economics that will facilitate you with practical applications related to real life situations. The last chapter summarizes all models introduced in this book and provides a table of references for finding the most important concepts, tables, and figures in the book so that you can recall every step of your adventure.

Author Biography

Tam Bang Vu is a professor of economics and interim dean of the College of Business and Economics at the University of Hawaii-Hilo. She has published more than 30 articles in refereed journals during the past ten years, including papers in renowned journals such as Economics Letters, Applied Economics, Applied Economics Letters, Pacific Economic Review, and Journal of Asian Economics. Tam Vu has been teaching quantitative methods for ten years, including both econometrics and forecasting courses. Her classes are open to both undergraduate and graduate students with an interest in business and economics. She holds a PhD and a MA in economics, a MM in piano performance, and two BAs in fine arts and architecture. She is also a graduate cooperating faculty at the University of Hawaii-Manoa.